DELPHI METHOD
The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After
each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts forecasts
from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their
judgements. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in
light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that
during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will
converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is
stopped after a pre-defined stop criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement
of consensus, stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results.Delphi is based
on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of
individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups. The technique can also be adapted for
use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-Estimate
(ETE).
STEPS INVOLVED IN THE METHOD:
1 . Define the problem
2 . Give everyone the problem
3 . Collate the problem
4 . Give everyone the collection
5 . Repeat as necessary